I'm So Proud...

Of myself! I was all over this bogus Social Security Calculator before everyone else. Now factcheck.org has debunked it as well. Remember your read it here first! I wrote:

the return on the [personal] account [assumed by the Democrats]was only 3 percent -- dismally low compared to the stock market average of about 7 percent (accounting for inflation).

Now Factcheck writes:

One thing we found is that the calculator systematically underestimates the likely returns of investments. It says "The calculator assumes that your investments get a rate of return of 3 percent above inflation ," a figure most financial advisers would find absurdly low. As we've pointed out before , the stock market has averaged 6.8 percent above inflation for the past century.

and in regards to fixing solvency, I wrote:

But there is one other problem -- the Dem's calculation compare the (deeply flawed) "numbers" from "Bush's plan" with today's promised benefits. The problem? How will we pay for those benefits? Raise taxes? Since personal account and cutting benefits are off the table raising taxes is all that's left. And If we do, well have less than three people paying for every retiree! Payroll taxes will have to be very high in order for that to work -- very high indeed.

So once again there are your choices; really high taxes or personal accounts -- take your pick.

And Factcheck writes:

Both the ad and the calculator use benefits promised under current law as their basis for comparison, but they fail to mention that current tax rates can't support those benefit levels beyond 2041. According to the latest projection of the Social Security trustees, benefits would then have to be cut 26 percent at that time, and that reduction would grow every year thereafter. Compared to the actual level of benefits that can be supported by the current system, Bush's supposed "cuts" would be much smaller.

Put another way, maintaining benefit growth at the level assumed by the calculator and the ad would require a tax increase, something not mentioned.

So in short, factcheck.org's article today finds the same errors, and reaches more of less the same conclusions as my post from yesterday. In other words -- I've scooped fact check!