Pakistan Policy

What will Americans think about U.S. policy in Pakistan in 20 years?

This article lays out Pakistan's current political turmoil, and discusses the different possible outcomes. President Musharraf is friendly to the west, but is a dictator, pitted against both pro-democratization forces and islamic extremists.

If we prop up Musharraf, we are working against democratizing forces. A democracy, of course, will probably bring greater freedom and civil rights to the people of Pakistan. A democracy will also likely be an ally for the U.S. Unfortunately, democracies are difficult to "pull off." That is, they are unstable and, therefore, promoting democracy in Pakistan may be considered unwise. It also is not clear whether the people of Pakistan are ready submit to democratic rule. The extremists in Waziristan will likely cause trouble in Pakistan regardless of who runs the country, as long as it is not them.

The Bush doctrine is to support democracy at the expense of stability, but no one is happy with Afghanistan or Iraq. We have our hands full with our current projects in the middle east and probably cannot manage another broken country or fledgling democracy. Furthermore, while the U.S. is usually allied with other democracies, Musharraf is already our ally, so we have nothing to gain if he is replaced by pro-U.S. democracy. Most importantly, Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Luckily, Musharraf can be mostly trusted to not use them. The same cannot be said of the Waziristan Muslim extremists. Therefore, from a self-interested perspective (often called a realist perspective), The U.S. should support Musharraf.

But if we do that, will we look back at Pakistan in 20 years, like we now look back at our dealings with 1980s Iraq, and say, "what were we thinking?" Unintended consequences in foreign policy abound. Whatever happens, the anti-American groups will be able to blame U.S. foreign policy for any bad outcome.