Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Game Theory in Democracy and Why Celebrity Apprentice is Fatally Flawed

  1. I've been thinking about Danny's comment that "our pseudo democracy makes us think we have a voice and can make changes in government and the Chinese know they don't have one. Either way the people have the same pull." I don't think that's true. In an authoritarian regime, the majority can want something and not get it, unless they are willing to commit civil disobedience and revolt and possibly face physical punishment. Even then they might not get it what they want, and run a very big risk (e.g., Iran, which may or may not work out). That means most, even strong majorities are not going to get what they want, unless the government wants it too. In a democracy, the majority only has to want something so bad that they become single-issue voters on it, and they can usually get it. And the majority in a democracy doesn't risk serious retribution by government. Those are big differences. 
  2. Unfortunately, while not strictly true, the statement certainly contains truthiness. That is Democracy gives you the feeling of control with very little actual control. Consider the following, which I think is kind of like game theory, but without the math (which I understand real game theory utilizes). We have persons A, B and C, who are students in a class trying to pick a class pet. They have three choices, a cat a dog and a fish. A prefers cat to dog, and dog to fish. B prefers dog to fish and fish to cat. C prefers fish to cat and cat to dog. If they all vote at once, they'll have one vote for each pet, and no decision. They'll have to vote in two rounds, between two pets, and the next round between the winner of the two, and the remaining pet. the outcome however, depends completely on the ordering. So, if the class picks between dog and cat, cat will win the first round (A and B for cat), and then in the second round between cat and fish, cat will win (A and C voting for cat). However, if the class picks between cat and fish first,  fish will win the first round ( B and C will vote for fish) and between dog and fish, dog will win the second round (A and B will vote for Dog).  In other words, voting only gives us the illusion that we are getting our preference. In reality it's random, or worse, can be manipulated.
  3. If you want to get even more sad about it, you can listen to this excellent but depressing podcast by Russ Roberts and Don Boudreaux. First they point out that one vote basically never counts. Boudreaux doesn't even bother voting because he views it as a waste of time. Then they point out that, because you vote for candidates and not policy positions, you are taking the bad with the good, making the outcomes even more random and less representative of actual popular preferences. Picking a candid is like shopping, by choosing between several prepackaged shopping cart, where the voter just has to find the best fit for his preferences, and buy a few things you probably don't want or need. Then, what happens if only the policy positions you opposed but could live with are the ones that are enacted? I'm shooting from the hip here, but it seems possible to me that voters could pick one "cart" because of strong preferences about a few of the items that are in the cart, with none of the positions actually garnishing majority support. Like a cart that appeals to many various special interests.
  4. I've long thought that people who don't want to vote shouldn't bother. If people don't care how they are governed, why not let the people who do care pick the leaders?  Now non-voters have another reason not to vote: one person can't make a difference.
  5. I, by the way, have become an avid reader of Cafe Hayek, which is Boudreaux's and Roberts' blog. I almost get giddy about new blog posts. Today's post taking a journalist, to task for, well, acting like a journalist, would be funny if it weren't so sad and common. 
  6. I want to say that I finished reading A Conflict of Visions. It was actually kind of a slog, and took me several months. First observation: Sowell is brilliant.
  7. Second Observation: there is almost nothing about libertarianism in the book. I feel like libertarianism fits pretty well with a constrained vision, but Sowell describes it as a hybrid. I think it deserved more than the half-page treatment it got. (on to Frank Meyers?)
  8. Third Observation and biggest lesson learned: liberals always seem to question conservatives' motives. I've always thought those accusations were in bad faith. Conservative and liberals generally want the same ends--help the poor, create wealth, increase freedom, etc.--we just have good-faith disagreements about how to reach those ends.  I can't find a good passage right now, but Sowell explains why liberals judge conservatives that way. Essentially, when you're liberal, and you think that people are "unconstrained", there is no reason to doubt that humans through government can correct social problems. The only think holding government back are the obstructionists. Anyone who does object to solving the problems is acting for some selfish motive and is evil. I need to find that passage because that's not quite right.
  9. On to something a little lighter. Celebrity apprentice is fatally flawed. In normal apprentice you teams get a task, the project manager runs the task and people are held accountable for how they perform. Generally the project manager that loses gets fired. Now, some people on the show that become "celebrities" in the loosest sense of the word, like Omarosa, are going to hang around a bit longer. But everyone has about equal star power. Celebrity apprentice messes that balance up. Some celebrities have more star power, and ratings are everything for a show, so Donald's choice of who to fire is heavily affected by star power. Also, getting in a cat fight can only help your chances to succeed. Hence Joan Rivers and Annie Duke lasted to the end because they were in a huge cat fight (although I supposed normal apprentices can help themselves this way, too). Also, in celebrity apprentice, "succeeding" in the tasks is more related to who's in the celebrity's rolodex, and how well they can shake the money tree, instead of  how well they perform at the task. Fundraising, not performance is key. Either that, or every task is fundraising, so they should just call it celebrity fundraiser.
  10. If you're a little nerdy, you'll probably find this funny.

7 comments:

Danny said...

I agree with your observation on democracy as a theory but just like everything in our world, things look a whole lot better on paper. To further your animal analogy, In America today, our choices are between 3 dogs of the same breed but with different colored coats. Anyway we slice it, we are getting a dog, even though really we want a damn cat. We are told by all the talking heads that one dog is better, we vote, we hope, but once they are in office, they look out for the hands that are feeding them. And the dog's true colors shine. I am depressed thinking about it.

The Apprentice; I think the first few seasons were amazing because all the tasks were new and the people vying for the job were legitimate gamers. After a few seasons, the producers got all Hollywood and looked for big personalities not good leaders/business people eg.. Amorosa. The producers also used all the cool tasks on previous seasons and had to start selling out to Proctor and Gamble and Subway to launch new products. The essence of the show died.
As for the celebrities, you're spot on. Celebrity everything destroys the fun/reality of reality tv.

Anonymous said...

So why in your opinion is the theory not translating into practice? where is the breakdown occurring?

I'd think that if all the candidates are running as dogs, it probably indicate that we wanted a dog? or is it that those running as cats are lying and are really dogs?

Does this mean that you think that all politicians act the exact same once in office? At the least, don't different hands feed different politicians, meaning policy will be different depending on who is elected?

Consider the following (and let me make clear I really don't like McCain):

If McCain would have been elected, would any of the following have been different?

1. The stimulus
2. The bailout
3. The war in Afghanistan
4. The health care bill
5. The appointment of Sotomayor

Danny said...

In our case.. or in the case of the last election we only had two choices, both of which were terrible. We talked ourselves into liking McCain, but everyone I knew that voted for him, hated him.
I think in our country the breakdown happens at the "barrier to entry" of politics. Because it is A.) Expensive and B.) Expensive, no normal everyday "John Adams" type can run for president without some sort of big money backer. These big money backers are all the same, they support both parties some characters change but the lack or morality is the same. Sure, some businesses (Fanny & Freddie) work better from the left side than the right, but, just because their man didn't make it, does not mean they give up.
If McCain had been elected: 1. Yes 2. Yes 3. Same 4. No 5. Possibly. In my estimation the only thing that would be significantly different is the crazy obsession over health care. Although, if McCain were in power, we probably would be in another war right now, so our resources would be equally stretched.

Anonymous said...

We had option between McCain and Obama, and we had options other than McCain in the primaries, too. There was Romney, who I much preferred, or Huckabee, who I despised, or Giuliani, who I could have made my peace with, Fred Thompson, who I liked pretty well. But Thompson was too lethargic, Romney too Mormon, Huckabee too all around lame, so after some indecision, Republicans got stuck with McCain. But there were other options, and people voted. And there were real difference between them, although no one was great.

I guess what I'm saying is, I'd never have voted for McCain in the primaries, but people did vote for him to get him in the election amongst real alternatives. So there was one democratic choice there. And just because you and I didn't like the options we had doesn't mean that the election wasn't a real decision between alternatives.

1. We'd still have had bailouts.
2. We probably would not have the stimulus we had (although maybe a smaller one?)
3. We'd have had a surge without all the indecision, and humming and hawing. We'd also probably be doing more special ops type stuff, and fewer man-less drone assassinations. Not a huge difference.
4. I think it's fair to say if McCain was president, we would not be facing anything like this health care bill we are facing.
5. Souter probably would not have retired, but you can be sure that, without a huge fluke, we'd have gotten someone better than Sotomayor.

I don't think we'd be in another war (with Iran?) if only because we don't really have the will and because our military is kind of busy as it is. Plus, I don't think McCain is that crazy.

If the only difference between McCain and Obama is the health care bill, then that to me seems like a pretty huge difference.

Danny said...

blerg. I agree. I hate losing.

Brett said...

2. I agree with you're example here, but think that when it is scaled up in numbers we're not likely to have three major groupings of people who rank all three options in the same order. I'm guessing that the results of most major elections would come out the same regardless of how you'd match up candidates. Do you think any of the republican candidates would have beat Obama?

3. I found that part in Freakonomics humorous were they talked about it not being kosher to vote if you're an economist.

4. I'm starting to feel the same.

8. This has bothered me for some time, particularly in economic discussions. If you disagree with the consequences of a certain policy and can argue why, that's fine, but usually liberals just end up saying that conservative economics come down to the selfish protecting the rich. If you don't vote for minimum wage hikes it can only be because you don't care about the poor right?

10. I did, only because I've read way too many journal articles.

As for Danny's cats, maybe they're not on the ballot because the "feeders" only offer dog food.

Anonymous said...

Brett, I agree that that exact scenario is not going to happen very often. I think it's just supposed to be an example of how our voting system is really an imprecise measure of popular sentiment, and how our system doesn't measure the intensity of preferences meaning the majority's preferred candidate may not be chosen. Like Ross Perot spoiling the 1992 election. So any time you have three candidates, and one candidate doesn't get a clear majority, there's the potential that ultimate winner does not have the support of the people.

Also, suppose you have 4 candidates, and have a runnoff between the top two vote getters. Well the bottom two vote getters could simply be occupying a similar niche, and splitting up votes. The bottom two vote getters may actually have broader, less intense support than the top vote getters. Maybe the bottom vote getter is the preferred backup candidate of the 2nd and 3rd place vote getters.

Or in U.S. presidential elections, you could have a primary candidate who enjoys majority support in the primary, with a more moderate candidate coming in second, who would potentially have broader support in the general election. So, maybe the United States would have preferred to have Joe Lieberman as president between 2004-2008, but because of the primary system, we didn't have the choice to vote for him in the general election.

I've been trying to think about ways to fix this problem. Like maybe we should let the top 2 or candidates from each party (and add a few other candidates from other parties in), and let everyone have 5 votes to distribute how they want. Voters can cast one vote for five candidates, or 5 votes to one candidate. But then there would be a lot of strategic voting. I would give all my votes to the most conservative candidate likely to win.

Or you could number your preferences 1 through, lets say, 10. with 1 getting 9 points and ten getting 0 points, or something like that. But could you skip number? would you have to use all your numbers? And, again, if I was voting in this system I would game the system and put the conservative candidate most likely to win as number 1, and the liberal (Democrat) most likely to win as 10. So I don't know how many people would vote strategically and whether we would actually get a vote that more accurately reflects voter preferences.