Most of the state-by-state polls show Obama with a few percentage points edge in the critical battle ground states, like Ohio. Romney and Obama, however, are very close in the national polls. Last I checked, the Real Clear Politics poll average had Obama with a .4% lead.
However, many of these polls have the Democrat turnout advantage around +8. That's about what the advantage was in 2008 when Democrats had a very likeable candidate with no record to defend, Democrats were very motivated to vote against Bush, the economy was tanking under a Republican administration, and the Republican nominee was John McCain, who die-hard Republicans disliked from his time as a senator.
So how do you explain the same turn out? Either (1) the polls are way off, perhaps due to pollster bias, in which case Romney should walk away with the election or (2) these factors just don't mean as much as we conservative types would like to think, and this really is a nail-bitter.
I guess we will get some evidence tomorrow.
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