Nate Silver Says Republicans Will Be Okay | National Review Online: "Polling and political-science maven Nate Silver doesn’t buy claims that the Republican party is being seriously hurt by its intransigence over the shutdown. The first four of his six “takeaways” from the government-shutdown fight:
1. The media is probably overstating the magnitude of the shutdown’s political impact.
2. The impact of the 1995-96 shutdowns is overrated in Washington’s mythology.
3. Democrats face extremely unfavorable conditions in trying to regain the House.
4. The polling data on the shutdown is not yet all that useful, and we lack data on most important measures of voter preferences."
'via Blog this'
I would have Scoffed at this in the past. but Nate Silver was basically totally right about the last election.